How cold will be the next winter ?   What can be expected for the summer ?   Such or similar questions have surely already put a lot of people. May you enjoy for cold and snowrich winter months or for hot days in summer ? The author of these sites would like try to answer these questions as exactly as possible and to bringing the topic nearer to the visitors. Additionally you can recall statistics of the climate and extrem values for Germany and Leipzig from past months and seasons.

If you all along want to know what the weather will be like in the next weeks and months, you are exactly right here. Of course it is an exciting question whether the coming summer will be warm and sunny or cool and rainy. My name is Lars Thieme, I live in Leipzig (Germany) and I have dealt with weather for a long time. Because I always wanted to know how the weather will turn out during a longer period I came to the field of long range forecasts. An high-interesting and so far unfortunately still little considered area which I already have been investigating intensively for over 10 years. Especially I try to continue the investigations and results of Franz Baur who was a pioneer of the long range forecasts and had published a multiplicity of statistical weather rules. As far as it is possible I also try to include these rules into the forecasts.

All weather prognoses which go beyond 10 days are called long range forecasts. The hit probability of the forecasts which are published here amounts around 70 % at present. At the further improvement of this value will be worked constantly. For my forecasts I especially use two different methods: On the one hand the calculation of determined sea-level-pressure constellations and temperature distributions over significant areas of the northern hemisphere during the previous months and on the other hand the use of generally scientific weather rules and statistics (e.g. sun spot statistic). I also make daily graphics of temperature and precipitation which I will present at the end of the month as a monthly balance for Leipzig. This balance check the hit probability of the prognosis at the same time. According to these above described methods the following climatic development (relative to the average values) for Eastern and Central Germany is to be expected:

Remark: The March 2010 had a temperature of 5.4°C in Leipzig-Gruenau and thus by +0.6 K slightly too mild and a precipitation amount of 30.6 mm (90 %) slightly too dry compared with the average values.
At the official station Leipzig-Schkeuditz the average temperature had a value of 4.8 °C which means a deviation from +0.7 K in relation to the period of 1951-2005.
 

A more detailed forecast for Central Europe you can find on the main page (german). Verifications of  accuracy of the prognoses you can find here.


Webcam in Leipzig