How cold will be
the next winter ? What can be expected for the summer ?
Such or similar questions have surely
already put a lot of people. May you enjoy for cold and snowrich winter
months or for hot days in summer ?
The author of these sites
would like try to answer these questions as exactly as possible and to
bringing the topic nearer to the visitors.
Additionally you can recall
statistics of the climate and extrem values
for Germany and Leipzig from past months and seasons.
Since 1.1.1999 the forecasts
have been producing with a new method which has already obtained very good
results in previous tests. An english description of this method will appear
next time.
It refers to the pressure conditions of the last months especially in regions
of Island, Europe and the North Atlantic. Besides more exact specifies are
possible for expected anomalies of the temperature.
The method will be checking and developing permanently.
A further model for the
long range
forecasting is already online however it is still in the test phase. Thats
why it is to be published only the forecast of one month for the next time.
Since 01.10.04 has been appearing a long range forecast for three selected
cities (De Bilt, Moscow, New York). It will be regularly updating around the
5th of every month.
Introduction
If you all along want to know what the weather will be
like in the next weeks and months, you are exactly right here. Of course it is
an exciting question whether the coming summer will be warm and sunny or cool
and rainy. My name is Lars Thieme, I live in Leipzig (Germany) and I have
dealt with weather for a long time. Because I always wanted to know how the
weather will turn out during a longer period I came to the field of long range
forecasts. An high-interesting and so far unfortunately still little
considered area which I already have been investigating intensively for over 5
years. Especially I try to continue the investigations and results of Franz
Baur who was a pioneer of the long range forecasts and had published a
multiplicity of statistical weather rules. As far as it is possible I also try
to include these rules into the forecasts.
All weather prognoses which go beyond 10 days are called long range forecasts.
The hit probability of the forecasts which are published here amounts around
70 to 75 % at present. At the further improvement of this value will be worked
constantly. For my forecasts I especially use two different methods: On the
one hand the calculation of determined sea-level-pressure constellations and
temperature distributions over significant areas of the northern hemisphere
during the previous months and on the other hand the use of generally
scientific weather rules and statistics (e.g. sun spot statistic). I also make
daily graphics of temperature and precipitation which I will present at the
end of the month as a monthly balance for Leipzig. This balance check the hit
probability of the prognosis at the same time. According to these above
described methods the following climatic development (relative to the average
values) for Eastern and Central Germany is to be expected:
Long Range Forecasts
Month
Average
Anomalie
Status
75 %
April
8.3
°C
+
0.5 K
slightly too mild
-0.4 K
...
+1.4 K
May
13.2
°C
+
1.0 K
moder. warm
+0.1 K
...
+1.0
K
Jun
16.4
°C
-
0.5 K
slightly
too cold
-1.3 K
... +0.3 K
July
18.2 °C
+
1.0 K
moder. warm
-0.2 K
...
+2.2 K
warm
normal
cold
Remark: The February 2008 had a temperature of
4.7 °C in
Leipzig-Gruenau and thus by +3.6 quitely normal and a precipitation
amount of 6.1 mm (20 %) very dry compared with the average values.
At the official station Leipzig-Schkeuditz the average temperature had
a value of 4.4 °C which means a deviation from +3.8 K in relation to the
period of 1949-2001.
A further verification of the accuracy of the prognoses you can find
here.
Forecast table
Month
April
May
June
July
Precipitation
normal
normal
dry
dry
Summer days
1
3
- 6
4
- 7
11 - 15
Hot days
2
- 3
0
0
- 1
3
- 5
Frost days
3
- 5
0
0
0
Ice days
0
0
0
0
Status:
05.04.2008 Specification without guarantee !!
The described forecast method (multiple linear regression)
for Germany could also be extended to other areas of the Northern Hemisphere
now. This was only possible by programing automation of the procedure. For
this stations with homogeneous datasets in West / Eastern Europe (De Bilt,
Moskau) and Nord America (New York) were chosen for test purposes. More
information of the forecasting method can you find here (german). Because of
the expended work only the one- and two-monthly forecasts are published for
these stations next time. The calculated deviations refer to the observation
period 1949 - 2001.
For the next two months the following deviations are
expected:
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